By Tiffany Williams –
The Texans open their home slate Sunday staring straight at a Tampa Bay team that still thinks it can be a contender in the NFC South. The Buccaneers didn’t exactly light up the scoreboard in Week 1, but Baker Mayfield and his offense showed just enough to remind you why they ranked top three in success rate last season. Houston’s defense gave up chunk plays last week, and that’s the exact crack Mayfield and Mike Evans love to pry open.
The wild card is rookie wideout Emeka Egbuka, who could see a bigger role if Chris Godwin sits. Egbuka’s polish and separation skills are no joke, and against a Texans secondary that looked ordinary, he could be the swing piece in a game begging for explosive plays.
But the game won’t be decided by receivers alone. Tampa’s pass rush only bagged one sack in Week 1, but it won’t stay that way long. The Texans’ offensive line is already battered, and C.J. Stroud was running for his life in Los Angeles. Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter give Houston plenty of firepower on defense, but if their own line keeps leaking, Stroud won’t have time to settle in.
That’s where Tampa can flip the script. Todd Bowles’ defense doesn’t have to dominate — it just has to force Stroud into third-and-long. And right now, that’s a nightmare scenario for Houston, who finished near the bottom of the league in both third-down conversions and overall offensive success rate in Week 1. Predictable play calls and no ground game? That’s exactly the kind of setup a veteran defense like Tampa can feast on.
Houston does have some edges. They’re at home, motivated after a bad opener, and they’ve got the pass-rushing duo to punish a Bucs line that could be without Tristan Wirfs. That matters. And Mayfield’s unit didn’t exactly look sharp last week either, which raises real questions about whether their 2024 efficiency was a one-off.
But strip it down and the matchup tilts Tampa’s way. Better playmakers on the outside, a quarterback who isn’t rattled by pressure, and a defense built to expose a weak offensive line. Houston will land a few blows, but the Buccaneers have the balance to grind this one out.
Prediction: Buccaneers 23, Texans 17